US and Iranian officials will meet in Geneva on Tuesday; oil prices remain stable ahead of the talks
According to sources, OPEC+ is inclined to continue production increases from April onwards. Oil prices showed little change on Monday; investors are assessing the impact on the market of the upcoming US-Iran talks aimed at easing tensions against the backdrop of expected OPEC+ supply increases.
Brent crude futures rose 3 cents to $67.78 a barrel as of 03:58 GMT. WTI rose 2 cents to $62.91 a barrel. There will be no WTI settlement on Monday due to the US holiday.
Last week, both indicators recorded weekly declines; Brent fell by approximately 0.5%, and WTI by 1%. These declines occurred on Thursday following statements by Trump suggesting he could strike a deal with Tehran, leading to a drop in prices.
Two countries will hold a second round of talks in Geneva on Tuesday after restarting negotiations earlier this month to address a decades-long dispute over Tehran’s nuclear program and prevent a new military confrontation.
Iran is seeking a nuclear deal that would provide economic benefits to both sides; energy and mining investments, as well as aircraft purchases, will also be on the agenda.
However, expectations of reaching an agreement are low, as both sides are expected to remain firm on key issues.
The U.S. has increased its threat by sending a second aircraft carrier to the region. A military operation is a possibility if talks fail. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard has warned that it could retaliate against any U.S. military bases in the event of attacks on Iranian territory.
With U.S.-Iran tensions driving up oil prices, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) are likely to resume production increases from April onwards, after a three-month pause, to meet high demand during the summer months.
Global financial markets are expected to be sluggish on Monday due to Lunar New Year holidays in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as Presidents' Day in the US.
Demand signals from China remain weak this week, and price movements may be volatile.
In the short term, geopolitical developments and volatile inventory data will remain key drivers, and crude oil may remain vulnerable to sharp two-way fluctuations.
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