Oil prices closed slightly higher after Trump denied allegations of an attack on Venezuela on social media
Oil prices closed slightly higher after a volatile trading session on Friday. Media reports suggest OPEC+ may agree on a small oil production increase. Prices retreated after Trump denied the threat of US airstrikes on Venezuela on social media.
Brent crude futures closed 7 cents, or 0.11%, at $65.07 per barrel. WTI closed 41 cents, or 0.68%, at $60.98 per barrel.
The seriousness of Trump's denial is debatable. Trump denied reports of a planned attack on Iran earlier this year, but subsequently launched airstrikes. It is not the only trick.
The initial news of a planned attack on Venezuela certainly had an impact on the market. If an attack occurs over the weekend, it wouldn't be surprising, and prices would jump on Monday.
In addition to attacking drug smugglers in small boats, which have been the focus of US naval activity in the Caribbean in recent weeks, the US has deployed a task force off the coast of Venezuela, centered on the Gerald Ford, the US's largest aircraft carrier.
It's clear something is afoot, and for oil investors, trading in this situation is a gamble.
The US dollar is trading near three-month highs against major currencies, making it more expensive to buy dollar-denominated commodities like oil.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has indicated it may lower December crude prices to multi-month lows for Asian buyers, signaling a bearish trend.
Oil prices fell after an official survey showed China's factory activity contracted for the seventh month in October.
Brent and WTI are expected to fall 2.6% and 2%, respectively, in October as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and major non-OPEC producers increase production.
The increased production will mitigate the impact of Western sanctions disrupting Russia's oil exports to China and India, its largest buyers.
According to surveys, the average price of Brent crude in 2025 will be $67.99 per barrel, about 38 cents above last month's forecast. WTI is expected to reach $64.83, slightly above September's $64.39 forecast.
Sources familiar with the talks indicated ahead of Sunday's group meeting that OPEC+ is heading for a modest production increase in December.
In reality, nothing meaningful will be added beyond what the Saudis can do.
According to data, Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports reached a six-month high of 6.407 million barrels per day in August.
A report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) also showed a record 13.6 million barrels per day of production last week.
Trump said on Thursday that China had agreed to begin purchasing energy from the US, and that a very large-scale transaction involving the purchase of oil and gas from Alaska could take place.
In his perceptual discourse, Trump expresses his demands and wishes, not what is
However, analysts remained skeptical about whether the US-China trade agreement would increase China's demand for US energy.
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