Oil prices edged higher, with the resumption of Venezuelan exports offsetting the risk of a supply disruption from Iran
While rising protests in Iran have fueled supply concerns, efforts to restart oil exports from Venezuela have offset these concerns, leading to a slight rise in oil prices despite expectations of a supply surplus this year.
Brent crude futures rose 5 cents to $63.39 a barrel as of 04:33 GMT, while WTI crude rose 4 cents to $59.16 a barrel.
Both contracts surged more than 3% last week, their biggest weekly gain since October, driven by a contraction in production as the religious regime in Iran intensified its crackdown on the largest protests since 2022.
A human rights group said on Sunday that more than 500 people have been killed in the civil unrest in Iran.
The market wants to see a significant disruption in supply before reacting concretely. Despite a recent surge in oil prices, the market is still underestimating the geopolitical risk stemming from a wider conflict in Iran, which could impact oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
The protests have also treatened for workers in the oil industry to go on strike. This would risk disrupting at least 1.9 million barrels of oil exports per day.
A US official said on Sunday that the president is expected to meet with top advisors on Tuesday to discuss options regarding Iran. Trump has repeatedly threatened to intervene if force is used against the protesters.
Meanwhile, Venezuela is expected to resume oil exports soon following the overthrow of President Nicolas Maduro; the Caracas government is preparing to deliver 50 million barrels of sanctioned oil to the US.
This situation has led to a race among oil companies to find tankers and set up operations to safely transport crude oil from ships and the devastated Venezuelan ports.
Trafigura said in a meeting with the White House on Friday that its first ship should load next week.
As the market moves toward 2026, it is expected that oil futures will increasingly price in a supply surplus scenario. Unless there is a clear demand rebound or a significant supply disruption, oil prices are to remain within a certain range.
Meanwhile, investors are also closely watching potential supply disruptions from Russia due to Ukraine's ongoing attacks targeting Russian energy facilities and possible harsher US sanctions on Russian energy.
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