Oil prices remained stable despite continuing supply risks from Venezuela and Russia
Oil prices remained stable on Tuesday after rising more than 2% in the previous session, as the US threat to sell seized Venezuelan crude oil and Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil facilities, ships, and ports heightened fears of supply disruptions.
Brent crude futures fell 6 cents, or 0.1%, to $62.01 a barrel as of 04:40 GMT. WTI fell 9 cents, or 0.16%, to $57.92.
On Monday, Brent crude posted its best daily performance in two months, while WTI recorded its biggest gain since November 14.
Crude oil markets are largely trading at low prices in the final weeks of 2025, reflecting a struggle between consistently bearish fundamentals and intermittent bullish news.
While prices may show a modest recovery throughout 2025, driven by geopolitical developments, the overall picture suggests a sluggish balance between demand and oversupply.
Generally, the trend remains weak as structural supply concerns overshadow short-term risk-aversion rallies.
However, markets are cautious; investors are comparing geopolitical risks to a potential supply surplus in early 2026, making prices sensitive to any prolonged disruption.
On Monday, Trump said he could capture the ownership or sell oil seized from Venezuelan shores in recent weeks as part of his pressure campaign against Venezuela. This pressure campaign includes a blockade of oil tankers under sanctions.
Even if Venezuelan oil exports fall to zero in the short term, likely, oil markets will still face a good supply in the first half of 2026.
However, it is being discussed that the global oil surplus will fall to just 700,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2026, and that a prolonged disruption could further tighten the market, depleting recent stockpiles.
Meanwhile, Russia and Ukraine continue to launch reciprocal attacks on facilities in the Black Sea, vital export points for both countries. Russia is making it difficult for commercial vessels passing through the Kerch Strait to enter and exit the Sea of Azov due to Ukrainian drone attacks.
Ukraine has also targeted Russian maritime logistics, focusing on the clandestine fleet of oil tankers attempting to circumvent sanctions imposed on Russia due to the nearly four-year-long war.
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